Happy holidays from the Ascend team!
We enter 2025 with big questions on AI’s societal impact, new model breakthroughs, and a wildcard twist:
AI’s Societal Impact: How will AI reshape life as we know it? Will universal AI tutors enter classrooms? Will debates over AI ethics hit the Supreme Court? Will robots finally be… intimate?
AI Technology Advancements: What’s next for the tech? Will AGI still be a pipe dream, or will we see a breakthrough? Will multimodal models dominate, or will agents take center stage? Could AI-powered apps become more profitable than the underlying models?
Black Swan Event: Anything goes — wild, random, unexpected. Will the Cascadia Subduction Zone finally do the thing? Will Froot Loops get banned under RFK? Will Spokane declare independence and start its own state with Idaho?
Here are our takes:
Kirby Winfield, Founding General Partner
AI’s Societal Impact: There will be at least one drone swarm attack on US soil in 2025.
AI Technology Advancements: Test-time training will replace pre-training as the standard method of predictive model optimization.
Black Swan Event: The Mariners will win the World Series.
Jen Haller, Partner and Chief of Staff
Societal Impact: We will use AI tools to be more intentional about forming IRL connections with others.
Technology Advancements: This is less of a prediction and more of a wish: My Oura Ring tracks stress, heart rate, and sleep. By 2025, an AI agent should take that data and help manage my schedule. Shift meetings when I’m overloaded, remind me to take breaks, and keep me on track for a balanced day.
Black Swan: I finally get my hoverboard.
Nate Bek, Associate
AI’s Societal Impact: Fans will appreciate availability over authenticity. AI-generated songs, movies, books, you name it — tuned to an artist's voice and style — will be good enough to be enjoyed by even the most loyal fans.
Technology Advancements: Small models will win the enterprise.
Black Swan: RFK will ban Froot Loops.
Thomas Stahura, Software Engineer
AI Societal Impact: Image-to-video will be the go-to meme format of 2025.
AI Technology Advancements: Coders will consume at least half of all generated tokens in 2025.
Black Swan Event: The outer space treaty of 1967 will be renegotiated.
